Modelling, muddling and meddling in the affairs of justice
National Criminal Justice Modelling Workshop: 2003
Presenter: John Walker, Manager Research & Statistical Analysis, Department of Justice, Victoria
Overview of presentation:
The title is meant to convey the reality of modelling in the criminal justice system:—that it is just a part of the great processes that go on in that corner of the bureaucracy, and that it needs to be accompanied by a lot of other activity—muddling and meddling (to be alliterative) —if it is to play an influential and significant role in what justice is and what it does.
Most conference attendees will know by now that my "style" of modelling involves:
- Examining past statistical trends, looking for turning points and constants,
- Workshopping them to identify the currently active drivers of trends in justice
- Turning the focus of the workshop to considerations of future trends and turning points, and then (but only then!)
- Modelling the scenarios that emerge from the workshopping process, incorporating demographic projections as the only "built-in" projections.
That's the easy bit!
The muddling (to turn non-existent or dodgy data into a credible piece of your model) and meddling (to get reluctant managers to actually use the modelling approach) is much harder!
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Last reviewed: Dec 19, 2006, Last modified: Dec 13, 2006
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